The impact of weather on global grain and oilseed yields
In the US, drought conditions improved for most food crops over the past week but only limited rainfall is forecast through the coming days for the corn belt where the lack of soil moisture could still adversely impact corn and soybeans yields.
In Canada, models call for hot conditions that can put further stress on fields that are suffering from extreme drought conditions.
In Brazil, heavy rain is expected from Friday, August 18 to Sunday, August 20 all over the country’s south, southeast and center-west regions, posing problems to the already delayed second corn crop harvest.
Parts of Argentina will see warmer temperatures and welcome rains through the coming days before a cold wave sweeps much of the country’s agricultural areas raising risks of frosts across regions.
Another heat wave is forecast for North Africa and parts of western Europe, with the dry weather in the latter expected to help resume field works that have faced delays recently due to rains.
Through the coming week, improved temperature and sunlight conditions are expected to support yields in the soybean and corn-growing areas in northeast China.
In Australia, rain is forecast for Western Australia, eastern New South Wales, and western Tasmania while other cropping regions will remain mostly dry, with sufficient and timely rain needed over the coming weeks and months to maintain current levels of winter crop production estimates.
US: In the corn belt, a narrow band of rain is sweeping across the Great Lakes region, while much of the rest of the region is experiencing dry weather accompanied by below-normal temperatures.
Much of the western and northern corn belt lacks sufficient soil moisture which could adversely impact corn and soybeans, and this will not be helped by the expected arrival of temperatures approaching 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 Celsius) in the western region in the next few days.
The Great Plains are experiencing dry, hot weather with temperatures rising to the triple digits as far north as Montana, and while fieldwork is quickly advancing some immature summer crops are suffering in areas experiencing drought.
Drought conditions improved for most food crops over the past week, with 42% of corn production areas experiencing drought as of August 15, a steep decline from 49% a week earlier, while soybeans were at 38%, down from 43%, according to the US Drought Monitor.
Areas planted with winter wheat experiencing drought conditions stood at 43% on August 15, down from 45% a week earlier, while spring week bucked the trend, with 54% of growing areas found suffering from drought, up from 52% a week earlier, the US Drought Monitor stated on August 17.
The National Weather Service’s six-to-10-day outlook for August 22-26 calls for the likelihood of above-normal temperatures nationwide, except for cooler-than-normal weather in the northeast and parts of the desert southwest.
Meanwhile, near- or below-normal rainfall in much of central and eastern US, will contrast with wetter-than-normal weather in New England, southern parts of Florida and Texas, and west of a line stretching from southeastern Arizona to the Dakotas.
Canada: Heat warnings are in effect for southern Alberta and Saskatchewan through Friday, putting further stress on fields that are suffering from extreme drought conditions.
Brazil: Heavy rain is expected from Friday to Sunday, August 20, all over Brazil’s south, southeast and center-west regions, posing problems to the already delayed second corn harvest.
A new cold wave is forecast to hit the southernmost Rio Grande do Sul state Thursday, August 17, and move northward towards Mato Grosso and São Paulo until Sunday, causing heavy rains.
This could further delay the second corn crop safrinha harvest works and pose headwinds to wheat farmers in the south due to excessive soil moisture.
Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul wheat farmers have been reporting a high incidence of wheat blast and other high moisture-related diseases as incessant rain is preventing the adequate application of pest defensives.
From Monday drier conditions are forecast for all of Brazil’s main agricultural areas with a few showers returning to the South between Tuesday and Thursday, August 17.
Argentina: The country is forecast to see warmer temperatures across most of its agricultural areas through the coming days with regular to large rainfall volumes across the southern and eastern cropping regions.
Rains will bring some welcome improvement to soil moisture reserves in those regions while the center-west and northwest of the country’s agricultural area will remain mostly dry.
Farther ahead, a cold wave is expected to sweep the country’s south, west and central areas with red flags raised for widespread frosts expected in the west and in localized areas in the south, parts of the Pampas and Mesopotamia regions as well as Uruguay.
Local forecaster Meteo France has predicted a heatwave in France, with the highest temperatures to be reached next Monday and Tuesday.
Germany will be less warm, with peaks of 37 degrees Celsius next Wednesday, but is also due for warm and dry weather.
Harvesting had been more affected in recent weeks by rains, so a resumption of dry weather will likely be welcome news for farmers, provided the heat does not also stifle work.
In Germany, harvesting was halted again on Thursday by wet weather after resuming earlier in the week, but with good weather should be able to proceed.
German wheat producers have complained that poor summer weather has reduced the protein quality of their wheat, with less of the high 12.5% grade now available for export.
Polish and Lithuanian farmers had also reported crop losses to the weather.
The BBC reported another heatwave was building in Morocco, with temperatures of above 40 degrees Celsius in Marrakesh.
Temperatures also remained high further west, with temperatures of around 30 degrees forecast for Algiers and in the mid-30s for Tunis.
China: Through the coming week, improved temperature and sunlight conditions are expected to support yields in the soybean and corn-growing areas in the northeast of the country.
Although showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the region, the firmer weather should allow for the drainage of waterlogged fields.
Heavy rain is forecast for southern China, the Sichuan Basin, western and southern Yunnan and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, with risks of increased water logging while high temperatures will persist in the center and eastern parts of the country.
Moderate to heavy rainfall is forecast to improve soil moisture levels in areas with signs of moisture deficit in Jianghuau, Jianghan, Jiangnan and other parts of East China.
In the last week, there was 25 mm of rain in cropping regions in parts of Western Australia, eastern New South Wales, and western Tasmania, but a high-pressure system continued to keep other regions dry, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES).
ABARES warned other regions would require sufficient and timely rain in the coming weeks and months to maintain current levels of winter crop production, because of a gradual decline in soil moisture reserves.
The next week is set to continue the ongoing pattern, with fronts and troughs bringing showers to parts of the country while a high-pressure system keeps the rest dry.
Across cropping regions, ABARES predicted rainfall of up to 25 mm in central South Australia and southern and eastern parts of Victoria and New South Wales, while falls of up to 15 mm were expected in parts of South Australia, much of Victoria, and south-eastern New South Wales.
Below-average soil moisture in Queensland and northern New South Wales amid a dry August is likely to negatively impact production potential for those areas according to ABARES.
Source : Fastmarkets